Typical July Pattern of Sun, Clouds, Humidity, Scattered Rain
FORECAST:
Friday (High 87, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Saturday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Sunday (High 92, Low 70): Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Monday (High 90, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Tuesday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Wednesday (High 92, Low 70): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Thursday (High 92, Low 71): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
BEACH FORECAST:
Friday (High 90, Low 76): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Saturday (High 90, Low 76): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Sunday (High 91, Low 76): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
PRONÓSTICO:
Viernes (Máxima 87, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.
Sábado (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas muy dispersas.
Domingo (Máxima 92, Mínima 70): Mayormente soleado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas aisladas.
PRONÓSTICO EXTENDIDO:
Lunes (Máxima 90, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
Martes (Máxima 91, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
Miércoles (Máxima 92, Mínima 70): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
Jueves (Máxima 92, Mínima 71): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.
PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:
Viernes (Máxima 90, Mínima 76): Mayormente nublado. Posibilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.
Sábado (Máxima 90, Mínima 76): Parcialmente nublado. Posibilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas muy dispersas.
Domingo (Máxima 91, Mínima 76): Parcialmente nublado. Posibilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas muy dispersas.
NOTES:
There is an Amber Alert out for an unsettling case out of Auburn, Alabama. The child’s name is Jibreel Harun, and a $15,000 reward is being offered to whoever can help authorities resolve this. Weather and public safety overlap sometimes, and this feels worth passing along.
The Weatherbrains podcast covered the flooding tragedy out of Texas, and I think it’s one of the best shows they’ve ever done.
Today is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Dennis.
And this Sunday will be the 6th anniversary of Hurricane Barry.
So while the tropics are quiet right now, it is a reminder that hurricanes can happen as early as July. And it is always a good idea to have your hurricane safety plan in place ahead of time, not to try to make things work at the last minute, if a hurricane does threaten the coastal areas later in the season. This year is likely to be an active season.
DISCUSSION:
We were variably cloudy today in Cullman with a good bit of sunshine too, also more than period of rain and thunder throughout the day. The High was 86, and the Low was 72. They also saw a thunderstorm in Jasper this afternoon, High of 90 and Low of 72. Haleyville saw a High of 87, Low of 72, nice to have their observations back. They too saw a thunderstorm in the early afternoon.
Decatur was partly cloudy overall today, a High of 89 and a Low of 72. Huntsville had a thunderstorm this morning and again this evening, High of 90 and Low of 73. Muscle Shoals only got some light rain this evening amidst the usual mix of sun and clouds, High of 91 and Low of 73 there. Tupelo saw a High of 91 and Low of 74. They too got a thunderstorm this evening. Memphis had a High of 90, Low of 75, partly to mostly cloudy skies overall. Nashville saw a little bit of evening rain, but mostly just a mix of sun and clouds, High of 89 and Low of 72 for the Music City.
And we’re in a pretty classic July pattern with seasonable heat and humidity and just scattered rain and thunderstorms each day.
We’ve got High pressure in the Gulf, surface high pressure, and at the upper-levels, some ridging up in the Ohio River Valley.
Since I’m posting this late at night, we have strongly unstable air at Birmingham, Nashville, and Jackson showing up on the 00 UTC/7 PM CDT radiosonde soundings. And we have almost no wind shear. And that’s typical for this time of year. That’s why you can get strong thunderstorms here and there, that pulse up and produce gusty winds, maybe some small hail, lots of lightning, or even brief heavy rains. And then they rain themselves out quickly. CAPE values of 2,000-3000 j/kg or greater would be alarming in the Spring months, but in Summer, they are routine. We don’t have the wind dynamics for that instability to cause us major problems like they would in the heart of severe weather season.
Tomorrow the GFS shows a fair amount of moisture in the region for at least scattered showers and storms.
The NAM shows the moisture levels being a little more modest. And really, the models often struggle with the random nature of our summer convection. But sometimes we look at them anyway, might as well.
Based on what we saw today and this general look, I’m just going to forecast a 40% chance of rain for tomorrow, scattered rain and storms. A mix of sun and clouds. Look for a High of about 87-88, a Low of about 69-71.
On Saturday, even the GFS backs off on how much moisture we have available. Forecasting a 30% chance of rain, High about 89-90, Low near 70.
And for Sunday, will only include a 20% chance, really isolated rain or storms, look for a High in about the 90-93 degree range, the Low around 70.
For the extended forecast, we’ll have a couple frontal boundaries getting close to the region but not really passing through and causing any major changes, typical for this time of year.
Because the front on Monday will at least flirt with the idea of pushing through our Northern counties, will increase rain chance back to 40% then before reducing to 30% and then 20% late in the period. Highs near 90, Lows near 70.
The tropics are quiet.
And our rainfall totals will mostly average a quarter-inch or less for this forecast period. A few spots could see closer to a half-inch or one inch, especially along and North of the Tennessee border. But the rain stays pretty random this time of year.